Get ready for another dud of a primetime game, that is, unless you are a member of Bills Mafia. The numbers don’t just favor Buffalo heading into Thursday night; they scream mismatch. The Bills enter this divisional showdown firing on all cylinders offensively, while Miami has stumbled out of the gate, struggling to find rhythm on either side of the ball.
| Offensive | Buffalo | Miami |
| Passing Yards | 284.0 | 215.0 |
| Rushing Yards | 166.0 | 69.5 |
| Points Scored | 35.5 | 17.5 |
| 3rd Down % | 41% | 45% |
| Red Zone % | 64% | 67% |
| Turnovers | 0 | 4 |
Offensive Breakdown
- Air attack: Buffalo is averaging 284.0 passing yards per game compared to Miami’s 215.0. Josh Allen has stretched defenses with explosive plays, while Miami’s passing game has looked conservative, inconsistent, and out of sync.
- Ground game: The Bills pound opponents with 166.0 rushing yards per game, more than double Miami’s 69.5.
- Scoring efficiency: Buffalo has been ruthless, scoring 35.5 points per game. Miami has managed just 17.5.
- Turnover margin: Buffalo hasn’t coughed up the ball once this season; Miami has already given it away four times.
It hasn’t just been the numbers weighing Miami down; Tua just looks bad. He’s forcing throws into tight windows, making poor reads under pressure, and tossing costly interceptions. Instead of taking advantage of the speed and explosiveness that the roster has, they’ve wasted too many opportunities by not getting the ball into the hands of Tyreek Hill and Devon Achane.
In comparison, Josh Allen is top-tier. If it’s not with his arms, it’s with his legs. That dude can do literally anything he wants. It’s definitely a different skill set for Tua; he can’t do half of what Allen does when it comes to running the ball, and how he can just chuck a ball down the field with the arm strength he has.
Sorry, Miami fans, too harsh? Don’t get mad at me, blame this guy.
| Defensive | Buffalo | Miami |
| Passing Yards Allowed | 124.0 | 236.5 |
| Rushing Yards Allowed | 169.0 | 139.0 |
| 3rd Down % Allowed | 27% | 52% |
| Red Zone % Allowed | 50% | 60% |
| Turnovers Forced | 2 | 0 |
Defensive Breakdown
- Lockdown secondary: Buffalo’s defense is holding opponents to a league-best 124.0 passing yards per game. Miami has allowed nearly double at 236.5.
- Situational dominance: The Bills allow just 27% of third downs to be converted, compared to Miami’s 52%. In the red zone, Buffalo has held teams to scores just half the time, while Miami is giving up touchdowns at a 60% clip.
- Turnover battle: The Bills have already forced two turnovers this year; Miami has forced none.
One wrinkle to watch: Buffalo will be without two of its defensive cornerstones in Ed Oliver and Matt Milano. Oliver leads the Bills’ front and has 1 sack and 3 tackles for loss through two games, and Milano has already piled up 9 tackles and 1 sack, continuing his role as the leader of the linebacker corps. Without them, Buffalo loses a disruptive interior presence and a coverage linebacker who erases mistakes in space. In the grand scheme of things, I don’t see much changing with how outmatched Miami still is, but it’s definitely worth noting.
Key Injuries
Buffalo: Ed Oliver (ankle), Matt Milano (pectoral), Taron Johnson (quad), Cam Lewis (shoulder)
Miami: Jaylen Waddle (shoulder), Benito Jones (oblique), Chop Robinson (knee) Darren Waller (hip)
DraftKings Odds & Picks
| Spread | Total | Moneyline | |
| Miami Dolphins | +12.5 (-108) | O49.5 (-112) | +575 |
| Buffalo Bills | -12.5 (-112) | U49.5 (-108) | -850 |
*Odds from DraftKings as of 9/17/25 at 11:00 PM EST
Buffalo is excelling in nearly every major category: offense, defense, situational football, and turnover margin. Miami’s defense is too porous, and its offense doesn’t have the firepower to keep pace. Tua’s shaky play only magnifies the gap. Even with the spread looking heavy, Buffalo has every tool to cover and cruise.