Game Preview
After a wild Sunday, we get to enjoy a Monday Night Football matchup of high-powered offenses with very different approaches. Lamar Jackson enters with a staggering 24-2 career track record against NFC opponents and a 7-2 mark on MNF, with a statline that bodes well for offensive production (22 TDs, 0 INTs), proving he shows up brightest in prime time. Baltimore has leaned on Jackson’s vertical passing (9.3 ADoT) and the downhill running of Derrick Henry, though he was held in check by what now looks like an elite Cleveland Brown’s rushing defense (57.3 rushing yards per game, 1st in NFL).
Detroit has shown flashes of their 2024 offensive domination, but tonight will be the test to see how much of that was due to a weak Chicago defense. Jared Goff’s ADoT has swung from 4.2 yards vs. Green Bay to nearly 10 yards against Chicago, while the Lions’ rushing production has been heavily dependent on blocking lanes, generating more yards before contact than after (173 to 40). On defense, Detroit has held up well in coverage, allowing only 196.5 passing yards per game, but they’ve been vulnerable to pressure lapses and inconsistent run fits. Their secondary now faces the challenge of limiting Jackson’s deep ball and Zay Flowers’ volume in the short-to-intermediate game.
Both defenses sit in the bottom tier in points allowed (Baltimore 29 ppg, Detroit 24 ppg) and red-zone efficiency, setting the stage for a Monday night shootout.
| Offensive | Lions | Ravens |
| Passing Yards | 267 | 195.5 |
| Rushing Yards | 111.5 | 141.5 |
| Points Scored | 32.5 | 40.5 |
| 3rd Down % | 36% | 39.1% |
| Red Zone % | 63.6% | 57.1% |
| Defensive | Lions | Ravens |
| Passing Yards Allowed | 196.5 | 298.5 |
| Rushing Yards Allowed | 106 | 111.5 |
| Points Allowed | 24 | 29 |
| 3rd Down % Allowed | 47.8% | 42.4 |
| Red Zone % Allowed | 71.4% | 77.8% |
Ball Watcher Pick 6 Play
Here’s where I’m leaning for tonight’s player props slip:
My Pick 6 Play
13x – $5 to win $65+
| Player | Pick |
| Lamar Jackson | MORE: 0.5 Touchdowns |
| Jameson Williams | MORE: 49.5 Receiving Yards |
| Derrick Henry | LESS: 85.5 Rushing Yards |
| Zay Flowers | MORE: 5.5 Receptions |
Lamar Jackson | MORE 0.5 Rush/Rec TD
Prime time is Lamar time. With 22 TDs and 0 INTs against NFC teams, he’s been nearly flawless in these spots through the air, but I like him to get his 2nd rushing TD tonight. Detroit’s red-zone defense ranks just 23rd (71.4%), and Lamar is averaging 10.4 yards per carry.
Jameson Williams | MORE 49.5 Receiving Yards
Detroit has leaned on Williams as their big-play option, averaging 17 yards per reception in 2024 and 21.8 so far in 2025. Baltimore’s secondary has been streaky thus far, giving up nearly 300 passing yards per game.
Derrick Henry | LESS 85.5 Rushing Yards
Henry’s workload is there, but the efficiency is the biggest question, averaging just 3.1 yards before contact this season. Against a Detroit front that’s been solid at winning early downs and only allowing an average of 1.1 yards before contact, it’s tough to see him hitting this over without a busted play.
Zay Flowers | MORE 5.5 Receptions
Flowers leads the Ravens in target share and provides a consistent underneath option for Jackson. With Detroit allowing an average depth of target over 10 yards, Flowers could clean up on crossers and short timing routes.