Thursday night brings us Rice (2-1) heading to Charlotte (1-2) at Jerry Richardson Stadium. Oddsmakers have Rice as a small favorite, but the matchup looks more intriguing when you dig into the numbers.
Rice Owls (2-1)
Rice comes in with a clear identity under new head coach Scott Abell: run the ball and run it often. The Owls are averaging 243 rushing yards per game, good for 14th in the nation. They want to pound it on the ground, control the clock, and wear down defenses over four quarters. The trade-off is obvious, though. Rice ranks near the bottom of the FBS in passing, putting up just 54 yards a game through the air. If Charlotte finds a way to force them into long passing situations, Rice doesn’t have the offensive balance to get into a shootout.
Defensively, Rice has been better than people realize. They’re holding opponents to just under 300 yards per game, including only 127 passing yards, which ranks among the nation’s top 25. Those numbers include a game against their rivals from down the road at Houston, where they held the Cougars to just 188 yards passing. That suggests Charlotte’s air attack may not have its usual rhythm. The weakness is against the run, where Rice is giving up more than 150 yards a game. If Charlotte can lean into that and find some success on the ground, it could soften up Rice’s defense.
Charlotte 49ers (1-2)
Charlotte, on the other hand, is built the opposite way. Their strength is through the air, averaging 253 passing yards per game, while their rushing output has been almost nonexistent at just 92 yards a game. They’ve shown flashes offensively, but their inability to run the football has made them predictable at times. Against a defense like Rice’s that thrives at stopping the pass, that’s a tough matchup to walk into.
The bigger concern might be on defense. Charlotte is surrendering nearly 450 total yards per game and has been torched through the air, giving up over 300 passing yards on average. That could open the door for Rice’s passing game to find more success than usual, especially if play action comes into play off the run-heavy attack. Charlotte has been a little better against the run, but not enough to completely shut down Rice’s bread and butter.
Keys to the Game
For Rice, the path to victory is simple: establish the run early, win time of possession, and keep Charlotte’s defense on the field. If they can grind out drives and avoid mistakes, they’ll play the game on their terms.
Charlotte’s best hope lies in explosive plays. They’ll need their quarterback to challenge Rice’s secondary and hit big shots downfield. If the 49ers are forced into one-dimensional, dink-and-dunk drives, Rice’s defense is too disciplined to let that beat them. And given Charlotte’s own defensive struggles, the margin for error will be slim.
Odds on DraftKings as of 6:30 PM EST 9/16/25
Game Picks
This one looks like it tilts toward Rice -2.5. Their rushing attack is consistent and well-suited to control the game, while Charlotte’s lack of a run game makes them easier to defend. Expect Rice to lean heavily on the ground game, bleed the clock, and cover the small spread. I’d also consider the Under 44.5 as I see this being a slower-paced game with Rice controlling the tempo.